Great Lakes Regional Assessment Report Released

30 November 2000

The Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team announced yesterday the release of their summary report for the Great Lakes region - Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. The report is based on information from the EPA-sponsored assessment of the potential consequences of climate change for the Great Lakes region and follows closely the release of the first U.S. National Assessment report (11 November 2000). The Great Lakes assessment was one of 19 regional assessments and six sectoral assessments in the National Assessment process that was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 and that was organized by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).

The Great Lakes Report summarizes the methods, findings, and recommendations from the Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team, which consists of approximately 40 faculty, research associates, graduate and undergraduate students, and external collaborators from around the region. The regional assessment used recent output from General Circulation Models (GCMs) that accounted for aerosols and for steady increases (as opposed to instantaneous doubling) in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The report focuses on results for the years 2030 and 2090. These two times occur approximately 30 years before and after the time when atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to have doubled from its current value.

A very unique aspect of the report is that regional stakeholders (people who live, work, and recreate in the Great Lakes region that are interested in climate change) helped to define the study through participation during a workshop that was held at the University of Michigan in May 1998. Concerns regarding the potential impacts of climate change on regional agriculture, forestry, water and land ecology, water resources, and quality of life that were voiced by stakeholders approximately two years ago were for the most part addressed. The Great Lakes Regional Assessment Team found that by the year 2090, Great Lakes water levels will likely be one to three feet lower; algae production, the primary food source for fish in the Great Lakes, will likely be 10-20% less; pine trees may be all but eliminated from the region; dangerously high ozone days may occur twice as frequently, and soybean yields may nearly double.

For a copy of the report or for more information on the Great Lakes Regional Assessment, click here or connect to http://glra.engin.umich.edu/ or contact: