Carbon

Scenarios Used for the Report

Scenarios for Climate Variability and Change -- Carbon

Andres, R. J., G. Marland, T. Boden, and S. Bischoff, Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion and Cement Manufacture, 1751 to 1991, and an Estimate for Their Isotopic Composition and Latitudinal Distribution. The Carbon Cycle, edited by T. M. L. Wigley and D. Schimel, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 312 pp. 2000.

Conway, T. J., P. P. Tans, and L. S. Waterman. Atmospheric CO₂ Records From sites in the NOAA/CMDL Air Sampling Network. Trends `93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, edited by T. A. Boden, et al., ORNL/CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Tennessee. 1994.

Houghton, R. A. and J. L. Hackler. Continental Scale Estimates of the Biotic Carbon Flux from Land Cover Change, 1850-1980. ORNL/CDIAC-79, NDP-050, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 144 pp. 1995.

Houghton, R. A. Land-Use Change and the Carbon-Cycle, Global Change Biology, 1, 275-287. 1995.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, N. Nakicenovic (lead author). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 599 pp. 2000.

Keeling, C. D. and T. P. Whorf. Atmospheric CO₂ Records from Sites in the SIO Air Sampling Network. Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 1999.

Marland, G., T. A. Boden, R. J. Andres, A. L. Brenkert, and C. Johnston. Global, Regional, and National CO₂ Emissions. Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 1999.

PSAC (President's Science Advisory Council). Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Appendix Y4, Restoring the Quality of Our Environment, Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, The White House, Washington, DC. 1965.

Shackleton, N. J., J. Le, A. C. Mix, and M. Hall. Carbon Isotope Records from Pacific Surface Waters and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Quaternary Science Reviews, 11, pp. 387-400, 1992.

Schimel, D, I. G. Enting, M. Heimann, T. M. L. Wigley, D. Raynaud, D. Alves, and U. Siegenthaler. CO₂ and the Carbon Cycle. Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC 1992 Emission Scenarios, edited by J. T. Houghton, et al., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom. 1995.

Wigley, T. M. L. and D. Schimel (Eds.). The Carbon Cycle. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom, 312 pp., 2000.

Vegetation and Biogeochemical Scenarios -- Carbon

Hunt, E. R., Jr, F. C. Martin, and S. W. Running. Simulating the Effect of Climatic Variation on Stem Carbon Accumulation of a Ponderosa Pine Stand: Comparison with Annual Growth Increment Data. Tree Physiology, 9, 161-172. 1991.

Kicklighter, D. W., et al. A First-Order Analysis of the Potential Role of CO₂ Fertilization to Affect the Global Carbon Budget: A Comparison Study of Four Terrestrial Biosphere Models. Tellus, 51B, 343-366. 1999.

Korol, R. L., S. W. Running, K. S. Milner, and E. R. Hunt, Jr. Testing a Mechanistic Carbon Balance Model Against Observed Tree Growth. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 21, 1098-1105. 1991.

McGuire, A. D., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, Y. Pan, X. Xiao, J. Helfrich, B. Moore, III, C. J. Vorosmarty, and A. L. Schloss. Equilibrium Responses of Global Net Primary Production and Carbon Storage to Doubled Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Sensitivity to Changes in Vegetation Nitrogen Concentration. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 11, 173-189. 1997.

McGuire A. D., J. S. Clein, J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, R. A. Meier, C. J. Vorosmarty, and M. C. Serreze. Modeling Carbon Responses of Tundra Ecosystems to Historical and Projected Climate: Sensitivity of Pan-Arctic Carbon Storage to Temporal and Spatial Variation in Climate, Global Change Biology, in press. 2000.

Sitch, S. The Role of Vegetation Dynamics in the Control of Atmospheric CO₂ Content. Doctoral dissertation, Department of Ecology, Plant Ecology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden. 2000.

Tian, H., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, A. D. McGuire, J. V. K. Helfrich, III, B. Moore, III, and C. J. Vörösmarty. Effect of Interannual Climate Variability on Carbon Storage in Amazonian Ecosystems. Nature, 396, 664-667. 1998.

Tian, H., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, A. D. McGuire, and J. Helfrich. The Sensitivity of Terrestrial Carbon Storage to Historical Climate Variability and Atmospheric CO₂ in the United States, Tellus, 51B, 414-452. 1999.

Tian, H., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, A. D. McGuire, B. Moore, III, and C. J. Vorosmarty. Climatic and Biotic Controls on Interannual Variations of Carbon Storage in Undisturbed Ecosystems of the Amazon Basin. Global Ecology and Biogeography, in press. 2000.

Schimel, D., et al. Contribution of Increasing CO₂ and Climate to Carbon Storage by Ecosystems in the United States. Science, 287, 2004-2006. 2000.

Socioeconomic Context for Climate Impact Assessment -- Carbon

Nakicenovic, N. and R. Stewart (Eds.). Emissions Scenarios: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York. 2000.

Report's Regional Elements of the U.S.

Southeast Region -- Carbon

Justic, D., N. N. Rabalais, and R. E. Turner, Impacts of Climate Change on Net Productivity of Coastal Waters: Implications for Carbon Budget and Hypoxia, Climate Research, 8, 225-237, 1997.

Midwest Region -- Carbon

Lal, R., J. M. Kimble, R. F. Follett, and C. V. Cole. The Potential of US Cropland to Sequester Carbon and Mitigate the Greenhouse Effect. Sleeping Bear Press. Ann Arbor, Michigan. 1998.

Great Plains Region -- Carbon

Haas, H. J., C. E. Evans, and E. F. Miles. Nitrogen and Carbon Changes in Great Plains Soils Influenced by Cropping and Soil Treatments. USDA Technical Bulletin 1164. 1957.

Lal, R., J. M. Kimble, R. F. Follett, and C. V. Cole. The Potential of US Cropland to Sequester Carbon and Mitigate the Greenhouse Effect. Sleeping Bear Press, Chelsea, Michigan. 1998.

Tiessen, H., L. W. B. Stewart, and J. R. Bettany. Cultivation Effects on the Concentration and Amounts of Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus in Grassland Soils. Agronomy Journal, 74, 831-835. 1982.

Pacific Northwest Region -- Carbon

Bachelet, D., R. P. Neilson, J. M. Lenihan, and R. J. Drapek. Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the US. Ecosystems, in review, 2000.

Bazzaz, F. A., S. L. Bassow, G. M. Berntson, and S. C. Thomas. Elevated CO₂ and Terrestrial Vegetation: Implications For and Beyond the Global Carbon Budget. Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems, edited by B. Walker and W. Steffen, pp. 43-76, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 1996.

Ellsworth, D. S. CO₂ Enrichment in a Maturing Pine Forest: Are CO₂ Exchange and Water Status in the Canopy Affected? Plant, Cell, and Environment, 22, 461-472, 1999.

Harmon, M. E., W. K. Ferrell, and J. F. Franklin. Effects on Carbon Storage of Converting Old-Growth Forests to Young Forests. Science, 247, 699-702, 1990.

Sohngen, B., R. Mendelsohn, and R. Neilson. Predicting CO₂ Emissions from Forests During Climatic Change: A Comparison of Natural and Human Response Models. Ambio, 27, 509-513, 1988.

Alaska -- Carbon

Bockheim, J. G., L. R. Everett, K. M. Hinkel, F. E. Nelson, and J. Brown. Soil Organic Carbon Storage and Distribution in Arctic Tundra, Barrow, Alaska. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 63(4), 934-940, 1999.

Ciais, P., P. P. Tans, M. Trolier, J. W. C. White, and R. R. J. Francey. A Large Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial CO₂ Sink Indicated by the ¹³C/¹²C Ratio for Atmospheric CO₂. Science, 269, 1098-1102, 1995.

Goulden, M. L., et al. Sensitivity of Boreal Forest Carbon Balance to Soil Thaw. Science, 279, 214-217, 1998.

Kasischke, E. S. and B. J. Stocks (Eds.). Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest. Ecological Studies Series, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2000.

Keyser, A. R., J. S. Kimball, R. R. Nemani, and S. W. Running. Simulating the Effects of Climate Change on the Carbon Balance of North American High Latitude Forests. Global Change Biology, 6, 1-11, 2000.

Lindroth, A., A. Grelle, and A-S. Moren. Long-Term Measurements of Boreal Forest Carbon Balance Reveal Large Temperature Sensitivity. Global Change Biology, 4(4), 443-450, 1998.

McGuire, A. D. and J. E. Hobbie. Global Climate Change and the Equilibrium Responses of Carbon Storage in Arctic and sub-Arctic Regions. Modeling the Arctic system: A workshop report on the state of modeling in the Arctic System Science Program, pp. 53-54, The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks Alaska, 1997.

McGuire, A. D., J. M. Melillo, D. W. Kicklighter, and L. A. Joyce. Equilibrium Responses of Soil Carbon to Climate Change: Empirical and Process-Based Estimates. Journal of Biogeography, 22, 785-796, 1995.

McKane, R. B., E. B. Rasetter, G. R. Shaver, K. J. Nadelhoffer, A. E. Giblin, J. A. Laundre, and F. S. Chapin, III. Climate Effects of Tundra Carbon Inferred from Experimental Data and a Model. Ecology, 78, 1170-1187, 1997a.

McKane, R. B., E. B. Rasetter, G. R. Shaver, K. J. Nadelhoffer, A. E. Giblin, J. A. Laundre, and F. S. Chapin, III. Reconstruction and Analysis of Historical Changes in Carbon Storage in Arctic Tundra. Ecology, 78, 1188-1198, 1997b.

Melillo, J. M., D. W. Kicklighter, A. D. McGuire, W. T. Peterjohn, K. M. Newkirk. Global Change and its Effect on Soil Organic Carbon Stocks. Role of nonliving organic matter in the Earth's carbon cycle, edited by R. G. Zepp and C. H. Sontaff, pp. 175-189, John Wiley and Sons: New York, 1995.

Moore T. R., N. T. Roulet, J. M. Waddington. Uncertainty in Predicting the Effect of Climatic Change on the Carbon Cycling of Canadian Peatlands. Climatic Change, 40(2), 229-245, 1998.

Oechel, W. C., S. J. Hastings, G. Vourlitis, M. Jenkins, G. Richers, and N. Gruike. Recent Change of Arctic Tundra Ecosystems From a Net Carbon Dioxide Sink to a Source. Nature, 361, 520-523, 1993.

Oechel, W. C., G. L. Vourlitis, S. J. Hastings, and S. A. Bochkarev. Change in Arctic CO₂ Flux Over Two Decades: Effects of Climate Change at Barrow, Alaska. Ecological Applications, 5(3), 846-855, 1995.

Oechel W. C., G. L. Vourlitis, and S. J. Hastings. Cold season CO₂ Emission From Arctic Soil. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 11, 163-172, 1997a.

Post, W. M., W. R. Emanuel, P J. Zinke, and A. G. Stangenberger. Soil Carbon Pools and World Life Zones. Nature, 298, 156159, 1982.

Rivkin, F. M. Release of Methane from Permafrost as a Result of Global Warming and Other Disturbances. Polar Geography, 22, 105-118, 1998.

Robinson, S. D. and T. R. Moore. Carbon and Peat Accumulation Over the Past 1200 Years in a Landscape with Discontinuous Permafrost, Northwestern Canada. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 13, 591-601, 1999.

Stocker, T. F. and A. Schmittner. Influence of CO₂ Emission Rates on the Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation. Nature, 388, 862-865, 1997.

Vourlitis, G. L. and W. C. Oechel. Eddy Covariance Measurements of CO₂ and Energy Fluxes of an Alaskan Tussock Tundra Ecosystem. Ecology, 80(2), 686-701, 1999.

Research Sectors of the Report

Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector -- Carbon

Sarmiento, J. L. and C. Le Quere. Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Model of Century-Scale Global Warming. Science, 274, 1346-1350, 1996.

Forest Sector -- Carbon

Bachelet, D., R. P. Neilson, J. M. Lenihan, and R. J. Drapek. Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the US. Ecosystems, in review, 2000.

Birdsey, R. A. and L. S. Heath. Carbon Changes in US forests. Productivity of America's Forests and Climate Change, General Technical Report RM-GTR-271, edited by L. A. Joyce, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, 1995.

Birdsey, R. A., R. Alig, and D. Adams. Mitigation Activities in the Forest Sector to Reduce Emissions and Enhance Sinks of Greenhouse Gases. The Impact of Climate Change on America's Forests, General Technical Report RMRS-GTR, edited by L. A. Joyce and R. A. Birdsey, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, 2000.

Ellsworth, D. S. CO₂ Enrichment in a Maturing Pine Forest: Are CO₂ Exchange and Water Status in the Canopy Affected? Plant, Cell, and Environment, 22, 461-472, 1999.

Houghton, R. A., J. L. Hackler, and K. T. Lawrence. The US Carbon Budget: Contributions for Land-Use Change. Science, 285, 574-578, 1999.

Shaver, G. R., W. D. Billings, F. S. Chapin, III, A. E. Giblin, K. J. Nadelhoffer, W. C. Oechel, and E. B. Rastetter. Global Change and the Carbon Balance of Arctic Ecosystems, BioScience, 42, 433-441, 1992.

Solomon, A. M., I. C. Prentice, R. Leemans, and W. P. Cramer. The Interactions of Climate and Land Use in Future Terrestrial Carbon Storage and Release. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 70, 595-614, 1993.

Schimel, D, J., et al. Contribution of Increasing CO₂ and Climate to Carbon Storage by Ecosystems in the United States. Science, 287, 2004-2006, 2000.