Historical Climate

Scenarios Used for the Report

Scenarios for Climate Variability and Change -- Historical Climate

Berger, A., M. F. Loutre, and J. L. Melice. The 100 kyr Period in the Astronomical Forcing. Scientific Report 1999/6, Institut D'Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Université Catholique de Louvain. 1999.

Berger, A. and M. F. Loutre. Insolation Values for the Climate of the Last 10 Million Years. Quaternary Science Reviews, 10, 297-317. 1991.

Berger, A. The Role of CO₂, Sea-Level and Vegetation During the Milankovitch Forced Glacial-Interglacial Cycles. Geosphere-Biosphere Interactions and Climate, edited by L. Bengtsson. 1999.

Clark, P. U., R. B. Alley, and D. Pollard. Northern Hemisphere Ice-Sheet Influences on Global Climate Change. Science, 286, 1104-1111. 1999.

COHMAP (Climates of the Holocene Mapping Project), Climatic Changes of the Last 18,000 years: Observations and Model Simulations. Science, 241, 1043-1052. 1988.

Crowley, T. J. Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years. Science, 289, 270-277. 2000.

Crowley, T. J. and G. R. North. Paleoclimatology. Oxford University Press, New York, 339 pp. 1991.

Etheridge, M., L. P. Steele, R. L. Langenfelds, R. J. Francey, J.-M. Barnola, and V. I. Morgan. Historical CO₂ Records From the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS Ice Cores. Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Tennessee. 1998.

Huang, S., H. N. Pollack, and P. Y. Shen, Temperature Trends Over the Past Five Centuries Reconstructed from Borehole Temperatures. Nature, 403, 756-758.

Imbrie, J., et al. On the Structure and Origin of Major Glaciation Cycles 1. Linear Responses to Milankovitch Forcing. Paleoceanography, 7, 701-738. 1992.

Imbrie, J., et al. On the Structure and Origin of Major Glaciation Cycles 2. The 100,000 Year Cycle. Paleoceanography, 8, 699-735. 1993.

Imbrie, J., A. McIntyre, and A. Mix. Oceanic Response to Orbital Forcing in the Late Quaternary: Observational and Experimental Strategies. Climate and the Geosciences, edited by A. Berger et al., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Massachusetts. pp. 121-164. 1989.

Indermuehle, A. et al. Holocene Carbon-Cycle Dynamics Based on CO₂ Trapped in Ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica. Nature, 398, 121-126. 1999.

Joussaume, S., et al. Monsoon Changes for 6000 Years ago: Results of 18 Simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 859-862. 1999.

Kutzbach, J. E., P. J. Guetter, P. J. Behling, and R. Selin. Simulated Climatic Changes: Results of the COHMAP Climate-Model Experiments. Global Climates Since the Last Glacial Maximum, edited by H. E. Wright, Jr., et al. University of Minnesota Press, Minnesota, pp. 24-93. 1993.

Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes. Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(6), 759-762. 1999.

Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. Historical CO₂ Record from the Siple Station Ice Core. Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Tennessee. 1994.

Petit, J. R., et al. Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 Years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica. Nature, 399, 429-436. 1999.

Stahle, D. W., E. R. Cook, M. K. Cleaveland, M. D. Therrell, D. M. Meko, H. D. Grisino-Mayer, E. Watson, and B. H. Luckman. Tree-Ring Data Document 16th Century Megadrought.

Thompson, D. J., The Seasons, Global Temperature, and Precession. Science, 399, 59-68. 1995.

Socioeconomic Context for Climate Impact Assessment -- Historical Climate

Bryson, R. A., H. H. Lamb, and D. L. Donley. Drought and the Decline of Mycenae, Antiquity, 48, 46. 1974.

Report's Regional Elements of the U.S.

Northeast Region -- Historical Climate

Kearney, M. S. and J. C. Stevenson. Island Land Loss and Marsh Vertical Accretion Rate Evidence for Historical Sea-Level Changes in Chesapeake Bay, Journal of Coastal Research, 7, 403-415. 1991.

US Historical Climatology.

(http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/ushcn/daily.html)

Pacific Northwest Region -- Historical Climate

dell'Arciprete, P., D. L. Peterson, R. C. Francis, and N. Mantua Climate Reconstruction Through Tree Growth Indices. Unpublished manuscript, available from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington, 1998.

Miller, R. F. and P. E. Wigand. Holocene Changes in Semiarid Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands. BioScience, 44(7), 465-474, 1994.

Rochefort, R. M., R. L. Little, A. Woodward, D. L. Peterson. Changes in Subalpine Tree Distribution in Western North America: A Review of Climate and Other Factors. The Holocene, 4, 89-100, 1994.

Alaska -- Historical Climate

Foley, J. A., J. E. Kutzbach, M. T. Coe, S. Levis. Feedbacks Between Climate and Boreal Forests During the Holocene Epoch, Nature, 371(6492), 52-54, September 1, 1994.

Overpeck, J., et al. Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries Science, 278, 1251-1256, 1997.

US Affiliated Islands -- Historical Climate

Parkinson, R. W., R. D. de Laune, and J. R. White. Holocene Sea-Level Rise and the Fate of Mangrove Forests Within the Wider Caribbean Region. Journal of Coastal Research, 10, 1077-1086, 1994.

Reading, A. J. Caribbean Tropical Storm Activity Over the Past Four Centuries. International Journal of Climatology, 10, 365-376, 1990.

Steadman, D. A. Prehistoric Extinctions of Pacific islands' Birds: Biodiversity Meets Zooarcheology. Science, 267, 1123-1131, 1995.

Research Sectors of the Study

Water Sector -- Historical Climate

Woodhouse, C. A. and J. T. Overpeck. A Paleoclimatic Record of Drought for the Past 2,000 Years. Proceedings of the AWRA Specialty Conference on Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change to Water Resources of the United States, American Water Resources Association, Herndon, VA, pp. 59-64, 1999.

Health Sector -- Historical Climate

Reiter, P. From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 6, 1-11, 2000.

Forest Sector -- Historical Climate

McIntosh, R. J., J. A. Tainter, and S. K. McIntosh, (Eds.). The Way the Wind Blows, Climate, History and Human Action. Columbia University Press, 2000.

Webb, T., III. Past Changes in Vegetation and Climate: Lessons for the Future. Global Warming and Biological Diversity, edited by R. L. Peters and T. E. Lovejoy, Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, 59-75, 1992.