Oceans

Scenarios Used for the Report

Scenarios for Climate Variability and Change -- Oceans

Gregory, J. M. and J. Oerlemans. Simulated Future Sea-Level Rise Due to Glacier Melt Based on Regionally and Seasonally Resolved Temperature Changes. Nature, 391, 474-476. 1998.

Knutson, T. R., S. Manabe, and D. Gu. Simulated ENSO in a Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model: Multidecadal Amplitude Modulation and CO₂ Sensitivity. Journal of Climate, 10, 138-161. 1997.

Lau, K. M. and H. Weng. Interannual, Decadal-to-Interdecadal and Global Warming Signals in Sea Surface Temperature During 1955-1997. Journal of Climate, 12, 1257-1267. 1999.

Leatherman, S. P., K. Zhang, and B. C. Douglas. Sea Level Rise Shown to Drive Coastal Erosion. Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, EOS, 81, 55-57, 2000 (also see responses and reply in EOS, 81, 436-437 and 439-441, 2000).

Timmermann, A., Oberhuber, J., Bacher, A., Esch, M., Latif, M., and E. Roeckner. Increased El Nino Frequency in a Climate Model Forced by Future Greenhouse Warming. Nature, 398, 694-697. 1999.

Report's Regional Elements of the U.S.

Northeast Region -- Oceans

Ebersole, B. A. Atlantic Coast Water-Level Climate. WIS Report 7, US Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC. 1982.

Gornitz, V. Regional Sea-Level Variations in Eastern North America: A Geological Perspective. Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 80, (17) S85. 1999.

Gornitz, V. and S. Lebedeff. Global Sea-Level Changes During the Past Century. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence, edited by D. Nummedal, O. Pilkey, and J. Howard, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 357-364. 1987.

Najjar, R. G., et al. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region. Climate Research, 14, 219-233. 2000.

Timmermann, A., J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, and E. Roeckner. Increased El Niño Frequency in a Climate Model Forced by Future Greenhouse Warming. Nature, 398, 694-696. 1999

Valverde, H. R., A. C. Trembanis, and O. H. Pilkey. Summary of Beach Nourishment Episodes on the U.S. East Coast Barrier Islands. Journal of Coastal Research, 15, 1100-1118. 1999.

Southeast Region -- Oceans

Rabalais, N. N., R. E. Turner, D. Justic, Q. Dortch, and W. J. Wiseman, Characterization of Hypoxia. Topic #1, Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Assessment, NOAA Coastal Program Decision Analysis Series, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Coastal Ocean Office, Silver Spring, Maryland, 144 pp. plus 3 appendices. 1999.

Timmermann, A., J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, and E. Roeckner. Increased El Niño Frequency in a Climate Model Forced by Future Greenhouse Warming. Nature, 398, 694-697. 1999.

Pacific Northwest Region -- Oceans

Beamish, R. J. and D. R. Bouillon. Pacific Salmon Production Trends in Relation to Climate. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 50, 1002-1016, 1993.

Bisbal, G. A. and W. E. McConnaha. Consideration of Ocean Conditions in the Management of Salmon. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 55, 2178-2186, 1998.

Canning, D. J. and H. Shipman, Coastal Erosion Management Studies in Puget Sound, Washington: Volume 1, Executive Summary, report 94-94. Washington Department of Ecology, Olympia, Washington, 1994.

Craig, D., Preliminary Assessment of Sea Level Rise in Olympia, Washington: Technical and Policy Implications. City of Olympia Public Works Department Policy and Program Development Division, Olympia, Washington, 1993.

Field, J. and M. Hershman. Assessing Coastal Zone Sensitivity and Vulnerability to Regional Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 1997.

Hare, S. J., N. J. Mantua, and R. C. Francis. Inverse Production Regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific Salmon. Fisheries, 24, 6-14, 1999.

Komar, P. D. and D. B. Enfield. Short-Term Sea-Level Changes and Coastal Erosion. Sea-level Fluctuations and Coastal Evolution, Special Publication 41, edited by D. Nummedal, O. Pilkey, and J. D. Howard, pp. 17-27, Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralologists, 1987.

Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis. A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 1069-1079, 1997.

Miller, A. J., D. R. Cayan, and W. B. White. A Westward-Intensified Decadal Change in the North Pacific Thermocline and Gyre-Scale Circulation. Journal of Climate, 11, 3112-3127, 1998.

Myers, J. M., et al. Status Review of Chinook Salmon from Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-35, 1998.

Pacific Salmon: Proceedings of the Workshop. US Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memo, NMFS-NWFSC-29, 1997.

Park, R. A., J. K. Lee, and D. J. Canning. Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Puget Sound Wetlands. Geocarto International, 99-110, 1993.

Pearcy, W. G., K. Y. Aydin, and R. D. Brodeur. What is the Carrying Capacity of the North Pacific Ocean for Salmonids? Pisces Press, 7, 2, 17-22, 1999.

Shipman, H., Vertical Land Movements in Coastal Washington: Implications for Relative Sea Level Changes. Washington Department of Ecology, Olympia, Washington, 1989.

Trenberth, K. E. The Definition of El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 2771-2777, 1997.

Walker, R. V, K. W. Myers, N. D. Davis, K. Y. Aydin, K. D. Friddland, H. R. Carlson, G. W. Boehlert, S. Urawa, Y. Ueno, and G. Anma. Diurnal Variation in the Thermal Environment Experienced by Salmonids in the North Pacific as Indicated by Data Storage Tags. Fisheries Oceanography, in review, 2000.

Welch, D. W., Y. Ishida, and K. Nagasawa. Thermal Limits and Ocean Migrations of Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka): Long-Term Consequences of Global Warming. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 55, 937-948, 1998.

Welch, D. W., Y. Ishida, and K. Nagasawa. Thermal Limits and Ocean Migrations of Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka): Long-Term Consequences of Global Warming. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 55, 937-948, 1998.

Alaska -- Oceans

Kruse, G. H. Salmon Run Failures in 1997-1998: A Link to Anomalous Ocean Conditions? Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin, 5(1), 55-63, 1998.

Broecker, W. S., G. Bond, and M. A. Klas. A Salt Oscillator in the Glacial Atlantic? 1. The Concept. Paleoceanography, 5, 469-477, 1990.

Brown, J. and S. Solomon. Arctic Coastal Dynamics: Report of an International Workshop. Woods Hole, Massachusetts, A geological survey of Canada open file report, in press, 2000.

(http://www.awi-potsdam.de/www-pot/geo/acd.html)

Buch, E., S. A. Horsted, and H. Hovgard. Fluctuations in the Occurrence of Cod in Greenland Waters and their Possible Causes. ICES Marine Science Symposium, 198, 158-174, 1994.

FOCI International Workshop on Recent Conditions in the Bering Sea. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, 1999.

Forbes, D. L. and R. B. Taylor, Ice in the Shore Zone and the Geomorphology of Cold Coasts. Progress in Physical Geography, 18, 59-89, 1994.

Huppert, D. Managing the Groundfish Fisheries of Alaska: History and Prospects. Reviews in Aquatic Sciences. 4(4), 339-373. 1991.

Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis. A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production. Bulletin of the American Meterorological Society, 78, 1069-1079, 1997.

Proshutinsky, A. Y. and M. A. Johnson, Two Circulation Regimes of the Wind-Driven Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, No. C6, 12493-12514, 1997.

Royer, T. C. Baroclinic Transport in the Gulf of Alaska: A Freshwater Driven Coastal Current. Journal of Marine Research, 39, 251-266, 1981.

Royer, T. C. High-Latitude Oceanic Variability Associated with the 18.6-year Nodal Tide. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 98(C3), 4639-4644 1993.

Semiletov, I. et al. The Dispersion of Siberian River Flows into Coastal Waters: Hydrological and Hydrochemical Aspects. The Freshwater Budget of the Arctic Ocean, NATO Arctic workshop, 25 April-1 May 1998, Tallinn, Estonia, edited by E. L. Lewis, 1999.

Shaw, J., R. B. Taylor, S. Solomon, H. A. Christian, and D. L. Forbes. Potential Impacts of Global Sea-Level Rise on Canadian Coasts. The Canadian Geographer, 42, 365-379, 1998.

Solomon, S. M. and R. Covill. Impacts of the September 1993 Storm on the Coastline at Four Sites Along the Canadian Beaufort Sea Coast. Proceedings of the 1995 Canadian Coastal Conference, Dartmouth Nova Scotia, 2, 779-795, 1995.

Witherell, D. Status and Trends of Principal Groundfish and Shellfish Stocks in the Alaska EEZ. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage Alaska, February 26, 1999.

US Affiliated Islands -- Oceans

Hamnett, M. P. and C. L. Anderson. Impact of ENSO Events on Tuna Fisheries in the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands. Report of research supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C., October 1999.

Low, L.-L., A. M. Shimada, S. L. Swartz, and M. P. Sissenwine. Marine Resources. Status and Trends of the Nation's Biological Resources, edited by M. J. Mac, P. A. Opler, C. E. Puckett Haecker, and P. D. Doran, pp. 775-866, US Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, 1998.

Native Peoples and Homelands -- Oceans

Hsieh, W. W. and W. G. Lee. A Numerical Model for the Variability of the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 108, 247-254, 1989.

Mysak, L. A. El Niño, Interannual Variability, and Fisheries in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 43, 464-497, 1986.

Research Sectors of the Report

Water Sector -- Oceans

Gornitz, V. Sea-Level Rise: A Review of Recent Past and Near-Future Trends. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 20, pp. 7-20, 1995.

Health Sector -- Oceans

Gower, J. F. R. Detection and Mapping of Bright Plankton Blooms and River Plumes using AVHRR Imagery. Third Thematic Conference, Remote Sensing for Marine and Coastal Environments, Seattle, Washington, pp. 151-62, 1995.

Lipp, E. K., J. B. Rose, R. Vincent, R. Kurz, and C. Rodriguez-Palacios. Assessment of the Microbiological Water Quality in Charlotte Harbor, Florida. Technical report to the Southwest Florida water management district, surface water improvement, and management plan, Tampa: Southwest Florida Water Management District, 1999.

Motes, M. L., A. DePaola, D. W. Cook, J. E. Veazey, J. C. Hunsucker, W. E. Garthright, R. J. Blodgett, and S. J. Chirtel. Influence of Water Temperature and Salinity on Vibrio Vulnificus in Northern Gulf and Atlantic Coast Oysters (Crassostrea Virginica). Applied Environmental Microbiology, 64(4), 1459-65, 1998.

Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector -- Oceans

Alexander, C. E. Classified Shellfish Growing Waters. NOAA's state of the coast report, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring, Maryland, 1998.

(http://state-of-coast.noaa.gov/topics/html/state.html)

Broecker, W. S., S. Sutherland, and T. H. Peng. A Possible 20th Century Slowdown of Southern Ocean Deep Water Formation. Science, 286, 1132-1135, 1999.

Broeker, W. S. The Great Ocean Conveyor. Oceanography, 4(2), 79-89, 1991.

Cane, M. A., A. C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, S. E. Zebiak, and R. Murtugudde. Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends. Science, 275, 957-960, 1997.

Gornitz, V. M. Sea-Level Rise: A Review of Past and Near-Future Trends. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 20, 7-20, 1995.

Hargreaves, N. B., D. M. Ware, and G. A. McFarlane. Return of the Pacific Sardine (Sardinops sagax) to the British Columbia Coast in 1992. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 51, 460-463, 1994.

Kaminsky, G. M., P. Ruggeiero, and G. Gelfenbaum. Monitoring Coastal Change in Southwest Washington and Northwest Oregon During the 1997-1998 El Niño. Shore and Beach, 66(3), 42-51, 1999.

Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, and C. Stephans. Warming of the World Ocean. Science, 287, 2225-2229, 2000.

Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Shang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis. A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 1069-1079, 1997.

Pacific Sardine Resource Now Officially Recovered. California Department of Fish and Game, press release, January 15, 1999.

Pugh, D. T. and G. A. Maul. Coastal Sea Level Prediction for Climate Change. Coastal and Estuarine Studies 56: Coastal Ocean Prediction, edited by C. N. K. Mooers, American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C., pp. 377-404, 1999.

Reed, D. J. The Response of Coastal Marshes to Sea-Level Rise: Survival of Submergence. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 20, 39-48. 1995.

Schmittner, A. and T. F. Stocker. The Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation in Global Warming Experiments. Journal of Climate, 12, 1117-1134, 1999.

Status of Fisheries of the United States, 1998: A Report to Congress. National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD. 88 pp. 1998

Strong, A. E., E. J. Kearns and K. K. Gjovig. Sea Surface Temperature Signals From Satellites: An Update. Geophysical Research Letters, 27(11), 1667-1670, 2000.

Sustaining Marine Fisheries. National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1999.

Titus, J. G. and V. K. Narayanan. The Risk of Sea-Level Rise. Climatic Change, 33, 151-212, 1996.

Year of the Ocean Discussion Papers. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1998.