The two major processes that play a role in climate change are global warming and global cooling.
Global Warming / Greenhouse Gases
Certain
naturally occurring gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O), trap heat in the atmosphere
causing a greenhouse effect. Burning of fossil fuels, like oil, coal, and
natural gas is adding CO2 to the
atmosphere. The current level is the highest in the past 650,000 years. The
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
concludes, “that most of the observed increase in the globally averaged temperature
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.â€
The Earth’s atmosphere is all
around us. It is the air that we breathe. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
behave much like the glass panes in a greenhouse. Sunlight enters the Earth's atmosphere,
passing through the blanket of greenhouse gases. As it reaches the Earth's
surface, land, water, and biosphere
absorb the sunlight’s energy. Once absorbed, this energy is sent back into the
atmosphere. Some of the energy passes back into space, but much of it remains
trapped in the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases, causing our world to heat
up.
The greenhouse
effect is important. Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would not be warm
enough for humans to live. But if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, it
could make the Earth warmer than usual. Even a little extra warming may cause
problems for humans, plants, and animals. The greenhouse effect is
important. Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would not be warm enough
for humans to live. But if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, it could
make the Earth warmer than usual. Even a little extra warming may cause
problems for humans, plants, and animals.
Global Cooling (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Aerosols/)
Aerosols are tiny particles suspended in the air. Some
occur naturally, originating from volcanoes, dust storms, forest and grassland
fires, living vegetation, and sea spray. Human activities, such as the burning
of fossil fuels and the alteration of natural surface cover, also generate
aerosols. Averaged over the globe, aerosols made by human activities currently
account for about 10 percent of the total amount of aerosols in our atmosphere.
Most of that 10 percent is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, especially
downwind of industrial sites, slash-and-burn agricultural regions, and
overgrazed grasslands.
Scientists have much to learn about the way aerosols
affect regional and global climate. We have yet to accurately quantify the
relative impacts on climate of natural aerosols and those of human origin.
Moreover, we do not know in what regions of the planet the amount of
atmospheric aerosol is increasing, is diminishing, and is remaining roughly
constant. Overall, we are even unsure whether aerosols are warming or cooling
our planet.
Figure 1. Aerosol particles larger than about 1 micrometer
in size are produced by windblown dust and sea salt from sea spray and bursting
bubbles. Aerosols smaller than 1 micrometer are mostly formed by condensation
processes such as conversion of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas (released from
volcanic eruptions) to sulfate particles and by formation of soot and smoke
during burning processes. After formation, the aerosols are mixed and
transported by atmospheric motions and are primarily removed by cloud and precipitation
processes.
Aerosols tend to cause cooling of the Earth's surface
immediately below them. Because most aerosols reflect sunlight back into space,
they have a "direct" cooling effect by reducing the amount of solar
radiation that reaches the surface. The magnitude of this cooling effect
depends on the size and composition of the aerosol particles, as well as the
reflective properties of the underlying surface. It is thought that aerosol
cooling may partially offset expected global warming that is attributed to
increases in the amount of carbon dioxide from human activity.
Figure 2a. (left) Clouds with low aerosol concentration
and a few large droplets do not scatter light well, and allow much of the Sun's
light to pass through and reach the surface.
Figure 2b. (right) The high aerosol
concentrations in these clouds provide the nucleation points necessary for the
formation of many small liquid water droplets. Up to 90% of visible radiation
(light) is reflected back to space by such clouds without reaching Earth's
surface.
Aerosols are also believed to have an "indirect"
effect on climate by changing properties of clouds. Indeed, if there were no
aerosols in the atmosphere, there would be no clouds. It is very difficult to
form clouds without small aerosol particles acting as "seeds" to
start the formation of cloud droplets. As aerosol concentration increases
within a cloud, the water in the cloud gets spread over many more particles,
each of which is correspondingly smaller. Smaller particles fall more slowly in
the atmosphere and decrease the amount of rainfall. In this way, changing
aerosols in the atmosphere can change the frequency of cloud occurrence, cloud
thickness, and rainfall amounts.
If there are more aerosols, scientists expect more cloud
drops to form. Since the total amount of condensed water in the cloud is not
expected to change much, the average drop must become smaller. This has two
consequences -- clouds with smaller drops reflect more sunlight (as explained
in Figure 2a & b), and such clouds last longer, because it takes more time
for small drops to coalesce into drops that are large enough to fall to the
ground. Both effects increase the amount of sunlight that is reflected to space
without reaching the surface.