From December 6-8, the Department of Energy hosted a 60 person workshop on Scenario Development at the Hyatt in Arlington, VA. The workshop started off by examining a white paper that explored types, definitions, and alternative uses of scenarios, their applications in previous assessments, and connections with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approach to scenarios.  Participants discussed how the New York City Adaptation Plan and several Department of the Interior activities utilized scenarios, as well the experiences of researchers who have used scenario development as an engagement technique.  Breakouts included suggestions for the types of data needed for scenario development, engagement strategies, and alternative ways to think about time and spatial scales. 

Many suggestions were made about the overall assessment process and use of scenarios, such as:

·       The need to move beyond “impact analysis” to the support of “risk management” that integrates adaptation, mitigation

·       The need to frame vulnerabilities in terms of biophysical, ecological, and human factors

·       Ways to integrate multiple stresses and sources of information

·       Ways to improve characterization of and communication about uncertainty

·       The need to prioritize interactions with stakeholders and consider their input on the relevance and legitimacy of scenarios

·       Ways to focus on the most pressing issues and evaluate potential solutions

Some participants requested that the NCA develop storylines that include historical climate analogues, describe a wider range of integrated climate-society scenarios, and create “toolkits” and how-to guides on the development of scenarios in regions and sectors. Participants also suggested that the NCA compile an inventory of existing scenario resources and utilize case studies of scenario applications from previous participatory processes.  Overall, the workshop provided an abundance of productive ideas that (after discussion with the Federal Advisory Committee) will help the NCA build credible scenarios for the 2013 report as well as for the longer-term process.