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Thursday May 3, 2012
Posted by Becky Fried
 A new study by scientists at Stanford and Purdue University projects that corn prices in the United States will become much more volatile in the near term because of more frequent severe heat conditions expected to result from human-caused climate change. The study also concludes that corn price volatility is more sensitive to near-term climate change than other commonly-cited factors such as energy markets or policy choices. Volatility in price for commodities like corn can translate to fluctuating prices on store shelves.
American corn farmers know from experience that weather events like flooding, drought, or extreme heat can cause crop yields to vary from year to year and affect the price of products containing corn for consumers. At the same time, policies that set minimum levels of corn-based biofuels for the national fuel supply also impact prices because they create additional demand for corn. But science also tells us that climate change is upping the odds for more frequent and extreme weather events in many regions of the United States – adding another layer of complexity to the corn-price equation.
The new study, published in the journal Nature Climate, integrates historical data from each of these areas—agriculture, energy, economics, and weather—with models of future markets and climate scenarios to determine the effect of climate-change-induced heat extremes on price volatility for corn. The authors conclude that climate change impacts pose a particular risk for corn crops—which are by nature very heat-sensitive—and that prices will swing much more wildly from year to year as a result of climate change than as a result of other forcing factors—even assuming relatively modest levels of global warming over the next few decades. The authors also find that policies requiring the use of corn for the production of biofuels can further amplify price volatility. In years when corn yields are already low, for example, such policies further diminish the amount of corn that can be directed toward consumers, thus driving up prices.
The study highlights the close relationship between American agriculture and climate change—a link that has been investigated in other scientific documents such as the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s 2009 report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, which warns that climate-change-related heavy downpours and droughts are likely to reduce crop yields. The study also concludes that while some crops show positive responses to small increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature, large increases often negatively affect growth and yields.
“Corn grows in almost every state and is very responsive to changes in climate,” said Jerry Hatfield, Director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, in a recent statement. “As the temperature gets warmer, corn reproduction and grain development are going to be decreased, everything else equal.”
Exposure to extreme temperature events during the critical pollination phase can be particularly detrimental to corn yields because pollen doesn’t survive well in extremely hot conditions. Temperatures above 95◦F, for example, will reduce the number of pollen grains that are able to complete fertilization, decreasing the number of kernels per ear of corn. Some producers are already taking steps to cope with these impacts, such as planting crops earlier to avoid having pollination occur on the hottest days, or switching to different crops altogether.
The new study on price volatility is an important reminder that as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increases due to climate change, farmers may feel the effects on the ground, and citizens may feel them in their wallets.
Learn more about climate change and agriculture here: http://www.usda.gov/oce/ climate_change/
Learn more about corn in the National economy here: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Corn/background.htm
Becky Fried is a Policy Analyst at the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy |
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Wednesday May 2, 2012
Featured on USGS.gov, a member of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
Data collected from long distance swims by Polar bears suggest that they do not stop to rest during their journey. Data collected from long distance swims by Polar bears suggest that they do not stop to rest during their journey. In addition to being an impressive feat, this provides some tantalizing clues into the polar bear’s future in an Arctic with less sea ice. That these bears can swim such long distances might mean that they are not as vulnerable to being stranded at sea as has been depicted by the media. Scientists wonder, however, if polar bears might be expending essential energy in swimming long distances.”
Read more: http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/polar-bears-long-distance-swimming-and-the-changing-arctic/
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Tuesday May 1, 2012
Featured on USDA.gov, a member of the U.S. Global Change Research Program
“The Forest Service recently unveiled a product that helps natural resource managers rapidly detect, identify and respond to unexpected changes in the nation’s forests by using web-based tools. The satellite-based monitoring and assessment tool aptly called ForWarn, recognizes and tracks potential forest disturbances caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, extreme weather, or other natural or human-caused events believed by many scientists to be caused in part by climate change."
Read more: http://blogs.usda.gov/2012/04/09/us-forest-service-and-nasa-team-up-on-climate-change-early-warning-system-for-forests/
ForWarn maps normal forest conditions as blue and change from normal as shades that range from green to red. This map shows that the greater part of Texas and Oklahoma were experiencing severe forest stress in late September of 2011 from the effects of drought and wildfire.
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 27, 2012
Contact: Fabien Laurier | 202 419-3481 | flaurier@usgcrp.gov
Administration Releases 10-Year Global Change Strategic Plan
The Obama Administration today released a 10-year strategic plan for research related to global change, identifying priorities that will help state and local governments, businesses, and communities prepare for anticipated changes in the global environment, including climate change, in the decades ahead.
The Plan—released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which for more than 20 years has coordinated Federal global change research— was developed collaboratively by more than 100 Federal scientists. It reflects extensive inputs from stakeholders and the general public, as well as a detailed review by the National Research Council, chartered by Congress to provide independent expert advice to the Nation. The Plan will be implemented through the USGCRP and the 13 Federal departments and agencies it represents.
“Human actions are altering the atmosphere, the land, and our oceans, placing new pressures on the Earth’s ecosystems and threatening the health and economic welfare of our Nation and the world,” said Tom Armstrong, Executive Director of the USGCRP. “High-quality and well-coordinated research is essential if we are to better understand and predict future changes, develop strategies to minimize our vulnerabilities, and adapt to changes that can’t be avoided.”
Federal research under the USGCRP has for two decades focused largely on detailed documentation of specific environmental changes by satellite and other Earth-observing technologies and the development of sophisticated computer models of the Earth’s climate system to predict how such changes will manifest in the near-term. In the ten years going forward that emphasis will expand to incorporate the complex dynamics of ecosystems and human social-economic activities and how those factors influence global change. By including these added dimensions, USGCRP-sponsored research will generate information of unprecedented practical use to decision-makers in a wide range of sectors including agriculture, municipal planning, and public works.
“It is no longer enough to study the isolated physical, chemical, and biological factors affecting global change,” Armstrong said. “Advanced computing technologies and methods now allow us to integrate insights from those disciplines and add important information from the ecological, social, and economic sciences. This new capacity will deepen our understanding of global change processes and help planners in realms as diverse as storm water management, agriculture, and natural resources management.”
The Strategic Plan describes four key goals for the USGCRP during 2012 – 2021:
- Advance Science: Advance scientific knowledge of the integrated natural and human components of the Earth system, drawing upon physical, chemical, biological, ecological, and behavioral sciences.
- Inform Decisions: Provide the scientific basis to inform and enable timely decisions on adaptation to and mitigation of global change.
- Conduct Sustained Assessments: Build a sustained assessment capacity that improves the Nation’s ability to understand, anticipate, and respond to global change impacts and vulnerabilities.
- Communicate and Educate: Broaden public understanding of global change and support the development of a scientific workforce skilled in Earth-system sciences.
Work towards these goals will help the USGCRP fulfill its Congressional mandate to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change,” as called for in the Global Change Research Act of 1990. To achieve these goals, USGCRP is developing an implementation strategy that will draw in part upon its expertise in conducting National Climate Assessments—broad assessments of global change impacts across U.S. economic sectors, the latest of which is currently under development.
In combination with USGCRP’s expanding communication and education activities, the new scientific findings and decision-support tools expected to emerge from the Strategic Plan will empower a broad range of stakeholders to make more informed and effective decisions as they prepare for and respond to the many dimensions of global change.
To learn more about USGCRP please visit: http://library.globalchange.gov/us-global-change-research-program-factsheet
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