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The CICE model simulates changes to Arctic sea ice and its interactions with the polar environment over seasonal to decadal timescales. The model’s development and maintenance have been led and coordinated by DOE since the early 1990s, with contributions from NOAA, NASA, NSF, ONR, and many other participants. CICE and its support infrastructure are the global standard for sea ice modeling for multiple applications, including scientific research, climate modeling, forecasting, and operations planning. In 2021, the CICE Consortium—a group of primary developers and users of the CICE model—earned...
Arctic Modeling
Barrier islands—narrow deposits of sand that form along the coast—help protect mainland coastal communities from storms and serve as important habitats for many species. Restoring or enhancing barrier islands can build coastal resilience to the effects of storms and protect important habitats that sustain coastal economies. Sediment management (e.g., dredging) can be done as a nature-based solution, if it is designed appropriately, and dredge materials are used to restore or enhance habitat near at-risk communities. A new study conducted by the USGS and FWS provides resource managers—including...
Nature-Based Solutions
A major challenge for natural resource managers in the western United States is anticipating and planning for ecosystem changes caused by complex interactions among climate, wildfire, and vegetation. The Southwest FireCLIME research partnership brings scientists and managers together to support decision-making processes around fire management in a changing climate. The project synthesized current knowledge of regional climate–fire–ecosystem dynamics through a formal science synthesis and annotated bibliography, forecasts of future vegetation change under different climate–fire regimes...
Adaptation Ecosystems & Biodiversity
The Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change ( RISCC ) Management Networks are working to reduce the compounding effects of invasive species and climate change by synthesizing relevant science, communicating decision-makers’ needs to researchers, building stronger scientist–stakeholder communities, and conducting priority research. The RISCC effort started in the Northeast region in 2016 with a collaboration among USGS researchers, university scientists, and state agency partners. It has since expanded to the Pacific Islands, Northwest, North Central, and Southeast regions, as well as new...
Adaptation Ecosystems & Biodiversity
Development of NCA5 continued throughout 2021, with many important milestones. NCA5 builds on the lessons learned from previous assessments, while aiming to enhance the diversity of its authors and contributors, address emerging priority topics, and enhance public engagement processes. In the spring and summer of 2021, the NCA5 Federal Steering Committee selected the report’s federal coordinating leads and chapter leads. Chapter leadership then selected a diverse group of expert contributors—nearly 500 authors and 200 technical contributors—representing all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the U.S...
Adaptation National Climate Assessment
In September 2021, NASA conducted the TRACER–AQ field campaign in the Houston metropolitan area to measure air quality, ozone, and meteorological factors that influence air pollution in the region. This effort was conducted in partnership with the DOE-led TRACER campaign, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, and several academic institutions, as part of a set of interagency field activities in the region in 2021 and 2022 studying interrelated questions of air quality, deep convective clouds (which often produce thunder and rain), and how aerosols influence the physics of deep...
Observations Physical Climate
Throughout 2021, the interagency Sea Level Rise Task Force, under the auspices of USGCRP’s CoastsIG and the Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology, engaged in extensive collaboration to produce the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report , which provides the most up-to-date sea level rise projections for all U.S. states and territories by decade for the next 100 years and beyond (Sweet et al., 2022). The report projects that sea levels along the U.S. coastline will rise an additional 10–12 inches by 2050, with regional variation. Agencies at the federal, state, and local levels use these...
Coasts Scenarios
Collaborative studies among scientists and decision-makers are identifying strategies to meet current and future water demands. The western United States faces growing water challenges. Drought, population change, aging infrastructure, and ecosystem needs all strain existing water and power infrastructure, and future climate change is expected to further increase stress on water supplies. Through the WaterSMART Basin Study Program , the Bureau of Reclamation works with states, tribes, non-governmental organizations, other Federal agencies, and local partners to identify strategies to adapt to...
Adaptation Water Resources
New research shows that the destructive power of individual tropical cyclones is likely to increase over this century. New research led by NOAA scientists found that as global temperatures and global average sea level continue to rise throughout this century, the destructive power of individual tropical cyclones (including hurricanes, tropical storms, and typhoons) is likely to increase. 1 The assessment, conducted by a World Meteorological Organization science team, evaluated modeling studies of how tropical cyclone activity is expected to change in response to 2°C (3.6°F) of human-caused...
Extreme Events Physical Climate
Satellite data products are helping land managers quickly evaluate the health of vulnerable coastal wetlands. Salt marshes protect communities and infrastructure from storms, filter pollution, and provide habitat for fish and shellfish. These coastal wetlands and the ecosystem services they provide are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels, erosion, and land use change, and land and resource managers need tools to track changes and trends in their health and extent. Satellite data products provide one method for quickly evaluating marsh vulnerability to environmental change and can help...
Adaptation Coasts Data & Tools Ecosystems & Biodiversity Observations